Position: 245m Shib (approx my entire investment portfolio lol)
I’m writing this DD to discuss the news around Shib lately, regarding the sell-off, the whales, and whatnot. I’m doing this because I’m sick and tired of seeing mainstream news lie to people and screw over retail investors.
Read this before you buy, read this before you sell. I am not giving financial advice, but you should know that I have nothing to gain by hurting you, and I do not believe your holding or selling Shib will impact my long-term investments.
Background:
As many of you know, Shib jumped 800% at start of Q4, and news surrounding it was ‘skeptical’. It has since been claimed that Robinhood and Kraken will list, however nothing has happened yet (although there is circumstantial evidence to support the notion that they are soon to list), and since, “Almost $15 Billion Has Left Shib as the Hype Around the Coin Fades” (Almost $15 billion leaves SHIB market cap as hype around the coin fades | Finbold).
So why the sell-off? Well, if you ask Bloomberg, the sell-off is a result of people realizing that the top 10 wallets hold 70% of the coin and will rug-pull us just like SquidGame. If you want to read their article, I think it’s a great example of modern journalism, read it here: Shiba Inu Whales Holding Billions in Tokens Hounded by Crypto Detectives – Bloomberg
There are two major topics to cover:
The Sell-off The Whales
THE SELL OFF:
As many of you have noticed, Shib is a bit down today. Here’s a handy chart from coinmarketcap to illustrate this:
Terrible, right? We’ve lost a huge percentage of what we’ve gained… Look at those candles! The world is ending! Okay, now that we’ve worked through our emotions, let’s actually look at the important metric: The volume.
Look at the bottom of the chart, that is your volume. Volume is the number of coins trading hands in a given day. During Oct, the volume shot up to levels far beyond anything seen before. Now, I want you to look at the corresponding gains. The large volume corresponds with massive gains. Now, look at the “crash” today, and then look at the volume. I am not going to tell you what to believe, but it appears to me that the volume is disproportionately small relative to the price change. This is representative of a major percentage of the market holding its position, with low buying interest due to saturated market under present conditions and panic selling by a small number of late-entry retail investors. Now, if you’ll believe mainstream articles, this sell off is actually a majority of the retail market collapsing, leaving the 10 big whales who hold 70% of the coin in total control.
In reality, this is a transient drop of value associated with low trading volume, not a market collapse. If large volumes of buyers were to enter the market, it would create much higher upward pressure than the sell-off. Since most of the market is holding their position, coins sold under these conditions are unlikely to be rebought at this same price level.
If you may re-enter the market, selling under these conditions could be disastrous
THE WHALES:
This is the main point of the DD. I have seen multiple major articles saying that the sell-off is due to whales controlling the market. Media coverage has a massive effect on the confidence or lack-there-of in any asset, be it a stock or cryptocurrency. Look at the effect that media coverage had on the obvious scam “SquidGame Token”. FOMO due to media coverage drove people into the scammer’s trap.
This same fear has come into play over the last week as major news outlets have reported on a massive whale with 12% of the coin in their pocket making moves. This has grown into the aforementioned Bloomberg article that has spooked the market.
70% of the coin is controlled by just 10 whales! This means that people could be squidgamed!
^ Let’s examine that!
Actual Percentage Controlled by Whales, October 30th vs November 3rd:
If the article had been printed on October 30th, the claim that 10 accounts hold 70% of Shib would be accurate. However, the 10 largest accounts have been in decline since that date, resulting in them now only holding 68% of the coin, and trends that show their percentage share will likely continue to decrease. The point I am trying to make is this:
This sell-off is partly attributed to market decentralization, not simply fear. Decentralization is a VERY good thing!
Now let’s examine these 10 whales!
Those 10 Whales:
If you’ll see above, 10 accounts do actually control 68% of the market, terrifying right? This CoinMarketCap list has been cited by multiple news outlets as a reason to avoid Shib. In fact, our friend (Aaron Brown) over at Bloomberg had this to say:
“Legitimate crypto is fully transparent about transactions, code and other matters — but is usually opaque about matching transactions to individuals…
…Legitimate crypto has a solid underlying economic case, its value does not depend heavily on who holds how much of it,” adds Brown. “But for crypto with no underlying economics — whose value is determined only by speculation — concentrated ownership suggests a rigged game. “
According to Brown and Bloomberg, we have no way of figuring out who owns these massive amounts of coins. Anyway here’s another top 10 Shib holder chart from Bloxy:
After reviewing this chart, I have some things to say:
Experts Endorsed by major media outlets aren’t always experts. A belief of intelligence and superiority leads to people talking out of their asses (lookin at you, Aaron)
Reviewing the Data:
Upon further review of the data, the following can be deciphered:
40% of the coin is in a dead wallet, not actually owned by anyone (we already knew this). 100+ Trillion is held on listed accounts (this is 20%+) 45 Trillion is staked Shib (xShib) (This is 9.5%).
The rest of the whales don’t control that much. This is actually a very decentralized market.
Also, I was doing some reading on twitter, apparently our “big whale” has already sold half of his Shib and purchased Ryoshis. His remaining Shib is split between 4 accounts. Since he’s buying into other parts of the ecosystem, it looks like we don’t have much to worry about. Seems like an early dev. This move makes sense as shibarium will be dropping soon, moving Shib from a token to a coin. Pretty smooth, mad respect.
If our whale really is a dev, or at least a super-supporter of the ecosystem, it is not unlikely that he will sell his remaining Shib to a major exchange such as Kraken or Robinhood to provide the tokens they need to create a Shib listing. If I were a market maker, that’s what I would do, and I would do it by splitting my wallets up and selling the wallets themselves, retaining a fraction of my original investment for growth and converting half into a complimentary coin. Seems like a perfect play for the ecosystem and the whale.
Anyway, I have a whole summary I want to write, but it will have to come as a comment later. I have to run, duty calls!
The TLDR is that SHIB isn’t controlled by whales, and the sell-off is not actually a major market event for Shib, leading to a likely rebound soon. Don’t buy into the FUD, the media is either lying or incredibly stupid- and both are dangerous.
submitted by /u/AirplaneFriend
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