Haven’t posted in abit, wanted to wait until the waters settled, though it seems things are still choppy.
Wasn’t planning to post anything until Monday, but seeing that this small dip has happened, I thought it be best to do it now.
Firstly, an update on me.
I got out of the BONE pool a little while ago.
Why? I see an opportunity to make more money with a smaller project atm whilst the market is doing its thing. Rest assured, I’m going to get back in, I just have the opportunity to double my position in Shibaswap is all.
I’m still holding a lot of Bone atm whilst doing this 2-3 week flip.
Just being Transparent for you all.
Recently I made a small scale prediction that I probably shouldn’t have. And Upfront I’ll say sorry for any short term price predictions.
Sometimes its fun to get carried away when posting these that you slip in your own thoughts on a price — short term always being a gamble. Long term predictions are usually safer bets.
Again. Only long term price predictions here on out. Or moreso the direction.
Why I was wrong? As you can see in realtime with Bitcoin, its been in its feelings for this entire month.
I think the answer to this is simply put: Covid.
In 2017, many people were able to fly, go, travel wherever they wanted with ease and generally it was just a small dip that happened.
You can see 2 dips between 20-25th November 2017.
If you look at the two dips we just had the past few days, and now this current becoming third and largest dip for this month, they are generally similar with one difference: the severity.
This year, most people wernt able/to scared to go out, even moreso than even last year — which I vaguely remember.
Travel restrictions are now easing up and most people have the vaccine now, so people are spending more this year , traveling more.
This is why the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose yesterday. If user spending has increased, it usually means people are taking some money out of crypto etc to spend for stuff, this is just like how in 2018 the crash of the 2017 run, chinese new year spending was HUGE and thats why we crashed back then.
And so you have the delayed market reaction to such spending or a correction based on December spending. Could be one or the other — or both.
But thats my best guess to the current dip. WHICH IS NORMAL.
Longterm. I still see everything following the same layout as 2017. Again, short term, things might be slightly different because of covid vs economy factors or inflation etc…but long term we follow the same cycle until Late January.
The only way I’m proven wrong on my Fractal theory is if November ends in a horrible downtrend or another crash at the very end of the month. If we go up from end of the month,then it still follows the 2017 fractal.
So please base any decisions you do on the above sentence. As I think if its downtrend, we are crashing before January. If its uptrend, we follow 2017.
So be careful. This next week is gonna make or break some people.
If we crash, make sure u be smart and convert to USDT until the crash seems over then get back in at a good discount.
Good luck my Shiba warriors.
I will be back on Dec 1st or so.
Hopefully, its with a warm hello.
-Pup Whale (calculating all possible outcomes)